In a Perry World House conversation, ‘Venezuela and U.S. Policy After Maduro,’ international affairs experts shared insights into oil, the Venezuelan economy, and what to expect next in the region.
3 min. read
“I believe Venezuelans deserve democracy and respect for their human rights,” says Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, Perry World House’s Thakore Visiting Fellow.
(Image: Matias Delacroix via AP Images)
The United States’ deposition of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro after a military incursion removed the authoritarian leader but has also left many questions remaining about U.S. goals for the country.
A Perry World House (PWH) panel brought together three experts to share insights into the outlook for the oil industry, the inner workings of Venezuela’s politics and economy, and the global impact of U.S. actions.
The panel featured:
Samantha Vinograd, leader of Brunswick’s U.S. geopolitical practice, former assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, and a PWH distinguished visiting fellow
Robert M. Scher, a non-resident PWH senior advisor and former head of international affairs for BP America Inc., who also served as assistant secretary of defense
Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, originally from Venezuela and PWH’s Thakore Visiting Fellow who is president of the Washington Office on Latin America
It was moderated by Michael C. Horowitz, faculty director at Perry World House, Richard Perry Professor, and former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense.
Among the highlights of the discussion:
Long road ahead for oil production
Venezuela isthe 20th largest producer of oil for export, with more than 1 million barrels produced in 2024, Scher says. But, despite the U.S.’ focus on boosting oil production, that may take some time due to the state of Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and reluctance on the part of U.S. oil companies, he says. “You can’t just sort of restart this. It’s not an on/off switch.”
Scher says, amping up Venezuela’s output won’t reduce the price of crude oil significantly. “Some smaller companies are going to make a lot of money in Venezuela very quickly, but I don’t think you’re going to see major changes in what Venezuela is producing until five, 10, 15 years,” he says.
And Vinograd says many U.S. oil companies don’t want to be viewed as arms of the U.S. government and might take some more convincing. “A lot of the big companies that the administration might want to entice into Venezuela also operate in Brazil, Colombia, around the world,” she says.
Jiménez Sandoval notes that 90% of Venezuela’s exports depend on oil in some form, and the country has a complicated cultural, social, and political relationship with the sector. “The survival of the economy depends on the oil markets,” she says.
Average Venezuelans desperate, in ‘humanitarian emergency’
Jiménez Sandoval, who has been following events in the country and speaking with partners on the ground for the last 10 days, says one out of three Venezuelans is food-insecure, the health system has been collapsed for several years, and more than a quarter of the country’s 8 million people have fled over the last decade. The country under Maduro was a “very repressive and authoritarian regime,” the only nation in the Americas with an open investigation before the International Criminal Court, and more than 1,000 political prisoners behind bars, she says.
Yet even with Maduro out of the country, the regime for the time being largely remains in power under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with both its repressive structure intact and no opening for political opponents. “I believe Venezuelans deserve democracy and respect for their human rights,” she says.
Cuba likely next on the administration’s radar
Scher and Vinograd agree that some action or involvement in Cuba is the next logical global move for the administration, especially given the personal and political backgrounds of some of Trump’s key advisors. “If you believe Marco Rubio is setting the agenda, then obviously Cuba is next,” Scher says of the secretary of state, who is of Cuban ancestry.
Vinograd observes that Cuba would be “an easier operation in certain respects” compared to the Venezuela incursion, while adding it would set off a “firestorm” of reactions from Mexico, Brazil, and other nations in the region.
For many countries, Jiménez Sandoval says, “this is a message that the United States is back to gunboat diplomacy,” and that sets a precedent “that the U.S. is willing to use military resources to conduct hemispheric affairs.”
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