New Website Tracks National Polls to Predict 2004 U.S. Presidential Race Winner and Call Other Elections
PHILADELPHIA-- Politicalforecasting.com is a virtual one-stop-shop for tracking major national public opinion polls and getting an unbiased prediction of who will win the U.S. presidential election and other races.
The hallmark of the site, the "Pollyvote," currently forecasts President George W. Bush's re-election by a slim margin.
J. Scott Armstrong, site director and University of Pennsylvania Wharton School marketing professor, devised the Pollyvote, an average of the results of election polls and forecasting models. The Pollyvote is updated regularly and posted on the site's homepage.
"We weigh all of the polls equally and don't play favorites. The Pollyvote combines unbiased public opinion surveys, econometric forecasts, and betting markets. Combining has been found to substantially reduce forecasting error," Armstrong said.
"Polly," derived from the words "political" and "many methods," is the name of the forecasting method politicalforecasting.com employs as well as the website's mascot, a multi-colored parrot whose image adorns many of the site's pages.
Like most talking parrots, Polly repeats what it hears. From now through November, Polly is reporting the results of Bush-Kerry match-ups in public opinion surveys conducted by polling or news organizations such as the Gallup Organization, Washington Post/ABC News, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The polls are posted on "Polly's Table," which is updated regularly as new poll results are released.
Not only does Polly report what others are saying, it has a language all its own, an assortment of phrases called "Pollyisms." Site visitors can contribute their own Pollyisms to the ever-growing list of Polly's favorite phrases on the "Polly Sez" page. Here, definitions of Pollyisms can be found such as "Pollytics," (a forecasting aberration;) "Monopolly," (the state of one candidate completely dominating the field ;) or "Pollies" (to look up the Pollyvote, i.e. "George pollies every morning before breakfast."
The politicalforecasting.com website, still in its infancy, is the brainchild of the Political Forecasting Special Interest Group, a team of researchers led by Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzan, political science professor at the University of West Florida, and Randall Jones, professor of political science at the University of Central Oklahoma. The site is hosted by the Marketing department of Penn's Wharton School with support from the International Institute of Forecasters.
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