Political scientist Daniel Smith discusses the results of the Japanese parliamentary elections and the effects on the country’s future.
2 minutes
A TV screen shows Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaking a day after Japan's parliamentary elections, in which his party lost its majority. Ishiba said he will remain in his role.
The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images
The Japanese parliamentary elections saw the leading party of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba lose its majority as right-wing parties increased their share of the vote. Penn Today spoke with Daniel Smith, associate professor of political science in the School of Arts & Sciences, who specializes in Japan, about the election results and what to expect.
Japan’s coalition government, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost its majority in parliament in the elections. Why is that shift important?
The LDP-Komeito coalition has been ruling as a minority government since it lost its majority in the lower house last October. Now that it has also lost its majority in the upper house, it can still continue as a minority government, but moving legislation through parliament will be even more difficult since bills must pass in identical form in both chambers. The coalition will need to make ad hoc deals with opposition parties if none is willing to formally join the coalition.
The LDP’s losses in both elections mean that Prime Minister Ishiba’s status is further weakened within his party, and this may also affect his ability to navigate U.S. trade negotiations and other issues.
The LDP’s decline came in part due to a surge in support in the upper house of parliament for two right-wing parties, Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People. What are the factors behind increased support for ultra-conservative movements in Japan?
It looks like populism has finally arrived in Japan. Both parties are tapping into frustration with the long-ruling LDP establishment and rising prices, with a good deal of support for both parties coming from newly mobilized younger voters. Sanseito has also taken a cue from Donald Trump, proposing limits on foreigners and proclaiming a ‘Japanese First’ ideology. The foreign population rose by about 10.5% last year to a record high, but foreigners are still only about 3% of the population.
The LDP is still the largest party in the government. Are the right-wing parties on the fringes of Japanese politics, or do they represent a true change in voter sentiment?
The LDP has always been a ‘big tent’ party on the right, with members ranging from moderates to hardline conservatives. Much of the support for Sanseito may come from conservatives who are expressing their dissatisfaction with the LDP under the moderate Ishiba. But many of Sanseito’s supporters appear to be newly mobilized voters who might have otherwise abstained.
Ishiba has promised to remain in power but could be brought down by a vote of no confidence. He also may face internal opposition from within his party. What do you see next for Ishiba?
I think Ishiba may stay on for a while. A vote of no confidence only makes sense if the opposition unites to oust the LDP, but the opposition is fragmented and unlikely to agree.
If the LDP removes Ishiba as party leader, it would need to find a replacement, and it’s not clear which LDP politician would want to take the reins in this moment of declining party fortunes.
Japan faces an Aug. 1 deadline to reach a new tariff agreement with the United States. How did tariffs and the economy play into voter decisions?
More so than tariffs, the already-high prices of everyday items, especially rice, was a big part of voter frustration with the LDP. If past actions of the Trump administration are any clue, the Aug. 1 deadline may move again.
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