This spring, University of Pennsylvania students are getting an insider’s view of the political process as they examine election results and polling data to monitor voting patterns in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election. 

Based in Penn’s School of Arts & Sciences, the Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies conducts social research in the public interest and teaches undergraduate students basic and advanced statistics, survey design and implementation and research methods to examine public opinion data and theory. It is done through specialized courses, mentoring and hands-on instruction. 

With the primaries well underway, the PORES curriculum is focused on survey research and data-driven journalism. 

“Right now, it’s all about the election,” Hannah Hartig, assistant director of PORES, says.  

As a part of a collaboration with the NBC, PORES staff and a select undergraduate students will be staffing the NBC Decision Desk the nights of the primaries. They’ll be working alongside analysts who will write the results of the exit polls for broadcast journalists and Web writers connected to NBC News and MSNBC. 

One of those analysts is John Lapinksi, associate professor of political science and director of PORES, who came to Penn in 2006. He also serves as the director of the elections unit for NBC News, which projects political race outcomes and analyzes exit polls for NBC News, MSNBC, CNBC and Telemundo.

The exit poll questionnaire collects data on voters’ demographics and attitudes, seeking to learn which qualities were important in chosen candidates and how voters feel about the state of the economy.

PORES students will check the numbers in writers’ stories, help create graphics and assist with other research needs. Five students will rotate on the desk during the primaries and the November election.

Right now, PORES is analyzing data from two resources: voter file data in collaboration with NBC, which is comprised of all of the publicly available information that states collect about voters, such as age, residential area, gender and registration status. The NBC News’ SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll asks basic questions about how people are engaging with the campaign, if they’re using social media to share political ideas and with which political parties the voters self-identify. 

The poll also tracks reactions to breaking news and debates. After a debate, the poll will seek to learn if voters changed their minds and how likely they are to vote for specific candidates. 

“It’s really interesting to be able to look at these various things and to see why and how they change over time. It’s a great tool to take note of changes or trends,” Hartig says.

Lapinksi says one of the biggest questions is who will actually show up at the polls for the primaries.

“Does the average person who normally doesn’t vote turn out for Trump? Trump is courting groups who traditionally have not turned out in large numbers in the primaries,” says Lapinski. “Can he get them to go to the polls this time around?”

Hartig says, “What’s interesting is: when people start to drop out of the political races. Where do the supporters go? Who do they turn their support to now?”

One of the things that PORES is studying is how early and absentee voting works in the primaries, because every state is different regarding the allowance of primary absentee voting. Caucuses, like Iowa, require in-person participation. By the time it’s Pennsylvania’s turn on April 26, it is possible that one or both presidential primary races could already be decided, Lapinksi adds.

“However, if the races are close, then going late gives Pennsylvania heightened importance,” Lapinksi says. “Think of 2008 on the Democratic side, the late states were critical to the outcome of the race. So, it depends.”

PORES also provides undergraduate research fellowships. This summer, PORES fellows will be heavily involved with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

In addition, PORES, in conjunction with the Political Science Department, now has a cross-disciplinary minor in survey research and data analytics. It is intended for students who wish to complement their primary areas of study with an interdisciplinary focus using data and survey methods to conduct research and evaluate programs, policies and outcomes in the social sciences.

“Data is usually thought of something that belongs to the traditional sciences, but knowing how to analyze data is more and more necessary and useful for students in the social sciences,” Hartig says. “While many peer institutions have coursework in survey research at the graduate level, few undergraduate programs exist.”