South Korea plunged into a state of national crisis this week over a six-hour martial law declaration by President Yoon Suk Yeol. Roiled by his own sinking popularity and now facing an impeachment inquiry, Yoon’s political future is now on the line.
Penn Today spoke with Hyunjoon Park, director of the James Joo-Jin Kim Center for Korean Studies, and Soosun You, a senior fellow in political science, about the situation and what to expect looking forward.
What seems to have sparked the declaration of martial law and where does President Yoon stand politically?
Hyunjoon Park: While it is difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons behind President Yoon’s declaration of martial law at this time, we can consider the broader context of his governance. President Yoon has been plagued by intense criticism on a range of issues. Elected by the narrowest margin in Korean presidential history, he has struggled to work with the opposition party, often adopting an antagonistic stance.
The Korean people have been frustrated by the Yoon administration, especially its continued lack of transparency and subverting of justice. The administration has failed to provide adequate explanations for the government's inability to prevent the deaths of at least 159 people in Itaewon on Halloween 2022 and has yet to hold accountable those responsible for this tragedy. Recently, public distrust in the government deepened further after President Yoon blocked a special investigation into the death of Lance Corporal Chae Su-geun, which included an alleged cover-up by senior military officers and suspicions of his own interference in the case. Also, given his declining approval ratings, it is clear that President Yoon has become politically isolated from the public.
Furthermore, President Yoon rejected the bill passed by the opposition-led National Assembly calling for a special prosecution investigation into his wife, Kim Keon-hee, who faces multiple allegations, including falsifying a resume, manipulating stocks, receiving improper gifts, and wielding undue political influence.
Moreover, he has failed to win over public support. The Yoon administration’s proposal to drastically increase medical school admissions has sparked fierce and ongoing conflicts between doctors and the government, undermining the country’s health care system and making it challenging for people to access urgent health care.
All these factors, along with other concerns, have likely driven President Yoon’s approval ratings to their lowest level since he assumed office. Professors and students from multiple universities have recently issued statements calling for President Yoon’s resignation.
What is the struggle or conflict between President Yoon and the National Assembly?
Soosun You: They have been at odds since Yoon assumed the presidential office in 2022. He won with a very small margin, and the ruling party also suffered a major defeat in the general election that took place earlier this year. He was never a popular president even among conservatives. His popularity continued to go down, especially after he and the first lady, Kim Keon-hee, were embroiled in a series of corruption scandals. In addition, there were various policy failures during his presidency, such as how he handled the medical crisis that led to medical staff shortages.
What could be expected next?
Park: Citizens, civil society groups, and parties across the political spectrum have already begun to call for President Yoon’s resignation and even impeachment. Opposition parties have already submitted a motion to impeach President Yoon. It is not clear yet whether President Yoon will resign before the National Assembly votes on the impeachment motion. Given that the impeachment motion requires votes from at least two-thirds of the National Assembly members, it is not certain whether it will be passed. However, some National Assembly members from President Yoon’s own party participated in the resolution to end martial law immediately after his declaration, which suggest that some of them may also agree to impeach him.
You: The declaration was lifted after the lawmakers very quickly gathered to vote the martial law down. In just two-and-a-half hours, 190 of the 300 lawmakers were able to assemble in the middle of the night, and all of them unanimously voted to lift the martial law. The political leaders, including the opposition party leader and several smaller opposition party leaders, have noted the illegality and unconstitutionality of the declaration. They are now calling for him to resign from the presidency, and some are also trying to call for the impeachment of the president. If he is impeached, he will be the second president since after the country democratized in 1987. It’s possible that we will see either impeachment or resignation by President Yoon.
However, in order for the impeachment motion to pass, a two-thirds vote in the National Assembly is necessary, requiring some members from the ruling party to vote against their party line. Right now, the PPP, which Yoon is a member of, has taken a stance against the impeachment. Instead, the ruling party leader has asked President Yoon to leave the Party.
We’ll have to see what happens, but it is still possible that some of the lawmakers will vote against the party line. They would also need six of nine Constitutional Court justices to approve the motion for impeachment.
What are you most concerned about when you see what’s happening?
Park: When I heard that martial law was declared, I was immediately reminded of the brutal military regime that employed violence to suppress and kill civilians who peacefully protested illegitimate authority in 1980. So, this time around, I was once again concerned about potential military interference and violence against peaceful protestors. The swift and peaceful lifting of martial law this time demonstrates the maturity and residence of Korean democracy. The Korean people would not let their hard-won democracy slip away.
What is the most important thing for people here in the United States to understand about what is happening in South Korea?
You: One of the key lessons is that democracy should not be taken for granted. South Korea has been regarded as a consolidated democracy. Even in such a country, it didn’t even take several hours for this incident to unfold. Fortunately, the citizens and lawmakers were able to take immediate action to prevent the country from further backsliding. It’s a caution not to take democracy for granted. That’s the big takeaway here.
