Using climate modeling to guide global economic and political decisions

Using climate modeling, researchers gain real-time insights into the past, present, and future impacts of climate change on the planet. Running and analyzing climate models under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios can help guide global economic and political decision-makers.

View large image

Irina Marinov, an associate professor in Penn’s School of Arts & Sciences’ Department of Earth and Environmental Science, explains how climate modeling works, the information these models provide, the challenges of climate modeling, and how she hopes resulting data can be used to improve lives.

“Climate models help us figure out which regions are most vulnerable to climate impacts, such as droughts or floods,” explains Marinov. “They also assist policymakers in planning for the future, whether it’s building defenses against sea-level rise or deciding how to reduce emissions. Climate models let us compare the costs of acting today versus delaying action. Research with these models shows us why we need to act now and transition to renewable energy fast instead of waiting.”

Marinov outlines how climate models operate. “Climate models start by using well-known equations from classical physics (called the Navier Stokes equations) to describe how energy, water, and greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide interact in the ocean, atmosphere, and land. We compare the output from the models with data from today’s world—things like temperatures, greenhouse gas levels, and satellite-observed chlorophyll—to make sure the model represents today’s reality,” she says.

“Once the model is set up and verified, we make assumptions about future economic outcomes and run simulations to predict the comprehensive future climate. For instance, we can explore what happens if we reduce carbon emissions or continue our current emission pathway. … We can also ask ‘what if’ questions, like what the climate would look like if we doubled the number of trees on Earth or moved all the mountains from North America to South America. These experiments help us understand how different factors influence the climate.”

Marinov’s current work puts the work of climate modeling into practice. “With political scientists Erik Wibbels and Jeremy Springman of the Penn Development Research Initiative, we are looking at socioeconomic and political impacts of climate change globally. With support from undergraduate researchers and climate researcher Anna Cabre, a Penn research associate, [we] are developing novel interdisciplinary projects for a class I’m teaching this spring, Climate and Big Data. At present, a group of students in my class are analyzing the impact of climate on socioeconomic indicators and migration in Central America. I am experimenting with the idea of classes as climate research incubators or startups which attract students of diverse academic backgrounds, such as from the life and social sciences, policy, or engineering, and shortening their time scale to get into computational, big data climate research.”

This story is by Stuti Mankodi. Read more at Environmental Innovations Initiative.