Ian Lustick, a professor in Penn’s Political Science Department and a leading authority on international terrorism, says this weekend’s atrocities in Douma can be attributed to a Syrian attack. We asked him to elaborate on a few details.
What is Russia’s role?
Russia is crafting its narrative to try to discredit the facts. “Russia is playing the same game of fake news it has been using in so many other domains to call this a hoax perpetrated by the Syrian opposition.”
In early February, Russian mercenaries tried to attack a U.S. military base in Syria, but hundreds of them were killed and another 100 or so were wounded in a massively successful response. Although not a part of the military, the Russian mercenaries were effectively under Putin’s control.
“These are the guys they send into Crimea and the Ukraine. That’s the way Putin operates,” Lustick says. “It was an awe-inspiring display of U.S. firepower against the Russians, but both the Pentagon and the White House were unusually quiet about this. They didn’t brag about this, and it brings new questions about the rules of engagement in Syria. But, it also shows that the U.S. would not necessarily be deterred from attacking Syrian installations for fear of killing Russians.”
Why would Syria do this?
“The attack was probably motivated by Assad’s fear of losing the precious members of the Alawite elite units that are among the last loyal soldiers he has. It’s not just the horror of the gas attack. This is very complex and multi-faceted.”
One new factor that complicates Trump’s desire to leave Syria is the Israeli opposition to an American disengagement because it would leave Israel even more exposed to a direct confrontation with Iran.
“It’s interesting that recent events have flown mostly beneath the radar of the U.S. media, except for a few of those specifically interested in Syria,” he adds.
After Israel attacked a Syrian base killing 12 people, Russian broadcast stations shared this information and released video footage.
“This shows that Russia is more ready to engage in conflict with Israel than it has been in the past.”
What should the U.S. do now?
The U.S. response should be swift and paralyzing.
“We should respond and make Assad pay a high price” as this was not a decision made on a whim,” Lustick explains. “He did it because he’s afraid of losing those soldiers who are still loyal to him. Without them, he’s totally dependent on the Iranians and Russians.
“Instead of striking missile bases, if we attack the Alawite forces and hurt those battalions, Assad would calculate that gas attacks are not a good thing to do.”
