As the war in Ukraine entered its third week, Perry World House hosted Sweden’s former Prime Minister Carl Bildt to offer his assessment on the conflict and where NATO, the European Union, and the world goes from here.
Bildt, who was also Sweden’s former foreign minister, has helped navigate major international challenges in his career spanning five decades, including negotiating directly with Russia when the Ukraine crisis first began in 2014.
He was introduced Monday evening by Interim President Wendell Pritchett.
“One of the biggest questions we now face is what happens next? Or in the prophetic words of Gen. David Petraeus speaking in 2003 on the Iraq War, ‘Tell me how this ends,’” Pritchett said. He welcomed Bildt, a Distinguished Global Leader in Residence at Perry World House, “to share his invaluable experience on these and other big questions.”
The discussion was moderated by New York Times reporter and editor Clay Risen, a Perry World House Visiting Fellow.
Bildt started off the evening looking back at the history of the region from the czars to World War I to the current crisis.
“We haven’t seen anything of the sort since Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in September of 1939, and the responsibility this time lies squarely with one person, Vladimir Putin,” he said. “The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Europe and the world will not be the same. Consequences will be immense for a long time to come.”
He called Putin’s ideas about Ukraine belonging to Russia “unhistorical and delusional.”
He described how Putin has continually misjudged Ukraine and the people’s will, first in 2014, and now with this war.
What will happen in the next few weeks is difficult to predict, he said, noting thousands more likely will die, millions more will flee, and cities will be pulverized.
“The only thing that’s certain is that Vladimir Putin can’t win,” Bildt said. “His insane gamble with the future of his country will result in a Russia that is much weaker, far more isolated, and less likely to survive in its present form than before. If he was seeking to secure his place in Russian history, I think he’s done it by now.”
Risen asked Bildt what Putin got wrong about Ukraine.
“Most things,” Bildt said. Putin truly believed he would be welcomed and expected a completely different reception, he said.
“He can’t accept that Ukraine is an independent nation; he thinks it belongs to Russia,” Bildt said.
Instead, Putin’s actions have resulted in a much more unified and a much stronger Ukrainian nation that will continue to fight for its future, Bildt said. “It will be a much stronger Ukraine that will have the solidarity and support of large parts of the world.”
In recent years, Putin has been spending more time talking about Russia’s past than its future, talking about Russia’s territorial loses in a way that borders on obsession, he said.
The discussion then turned to audience questions, from attendees both in the room and watching on Zoom. Topics ranged from whether the West can sustainably contain Russia to whether sanctions could be tougher on Putin himself and on oligarchs.
Bildt pointed to the freezing of the assets of Russia’s central bank as the most surprising sanctions agreement, one that is having an immediate effect; Russia’s GDP is down 10%, and the ruble is down significantly. Restrictions on technology will soon become painful, he said.
If the Europeans cut Russian imports of gas, Russia will survive as an economy, but it would look more like Iran or Venezuela, he said.
“Venezuela is a profoundly miserable place. That is not the Russia Putin promised his electorate,” Bildt said.
It’s important to remember Putin started off as an economic reformer, Bildt said. Putin was lucky at first, with 10 years of high oil prices and increasing personal income, but he’s struggled with that for some time, and now Russia’s middle class will start losing its status and its disposable income.
He called it “tragic” and pointed to IKEA leaving the country as an example. The Swedish furniture giant opened up in Russia in the 1990s and invested heavily there.
“For Russians, it was far more than providing them with bookshelves; it was a sign of coming out of drab Soviet life. And now IKEA is closing everything and laying off 50,000 people. These are tragic things.”
IKEA and McDonald’s pulling out of Russia has nothing to do with sanctions, Bildt said, but rather “individual businesses are saying, ‘It’s toxic. Our customers will not accept that we have business with Russia’ and that effect is profound.”
Now, because of the war, London and Brussels are talking and coordinating in a way that seemed impossible amid the Brexit drama, he said. There has been good cooperation between Europe and Washington. He thinks there will continue to be a significant uptick in defense spending in Europe, something that will also ease the transatlantic relations.
“Dramatic, tragic weeks and months are ahead of us, but the long-term future for the West doesn’t look that bad, after all.”
A recording of the full conversation is available on Perry World House’s YouTube channel.
